How much are you willing to pay to watch either R.Nadal or R.Federer plays?

En...I think I am prepared to pay up to ￡100

So now let's talk PROBABILITY!

1. World’s top 8 tennis players (include Nadal and Federer) will play each other in the group stage

2. 4 of them will go through the group stage and reach Semi-Finals

Question: What will be your chance to see either Nadal or Federer if you only go to ONE Semi-Final?

First of all, statistically, all 8 players should each has 50% chance to make it to the last 4 in the group stage

But realistically, you have to give Nadal and Federer better odds

75% should sound to be a fair odd for both of them

Now say Nadal and Federer both make it to the last 4, together with two other players X and Y, there can only be 3 possible scenarios on how the two Semis will play out

1. N vs F ; X vs Y

2. N vs X ; F vs Y

3. N vs Y ; F vx X

So you will have 5/6 chance see either N or F if you only go to one of the two Semi-Finals (given that they both make it to the last 4 in the frist place). But do not forget, even you do encounter the "black swan", i.e. the less fortunate "X vs Y" scenario, you will still be watching two of the best players in the world, like Murray, Roddick...

Now let’s bring all the calculations together...

The probability of seeing either Nadal or Federer in one of the two Semis can be calculated as

= The probability of Nadal makes it to the last 4 in group stage X  

   The probability of Federer makes it to the last 4 in group stage X (5/6)

= 0.75 x 0.75 x 5/6

= 47%

So the expected future value of a Semi ticket = ￡100 x 47% = ￡47

Because the Semis are in November, or nearly 6 month away, assuming 8% interest rate, the present value of a semi ticket is = ￡47  / (1+4%) =￡45.20

And such tickets are currently on sale for ￡45.30

BINGO!!!

All the math and statistics presented above might contain serious flaws, please feel free to challenge...

But if you have more interest in tennis than the math itself, please Google Barclays ATP Final, it will be hosted in London O2 in November.

Tickets are still available for FAIR PRICE...

And here is sth extra, there is 9.4% chance to see NADAL vs FEDERER in the Semi...